Today Analysis 29-11-2012

EURUSD

(Reuters) The euro fell for a third straight session against the dollar on Wednesday on worries about how a deal on Greek debt would be implemented and uncertainty over whether the United States would avoid the "fiscal cliff." The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2931. Traders cited bids at $1.2870 and $1.2850, which could limit losses in the near term, with some attributing the euro's weakness to talk of dollar demand for month-end portfolio adjustments. Offers were cited at $1.2940. The euro zone's common currency pared some losses after House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, voiced optimism that Republicans could broker a deal with the White House to avoid year-end austerity measures. But he repeated his opposition to raising income-tax rates. The U.S. economy trucked along at a "measured" pace in recent weeks and hiring remained modest, according to a Federal Reserve report that did little to calm concerns about slow growth and high unemployment. Earlier, data showed new U.S. single-family home sales fell slightly in October and the previous month's pace of sales was revised sharply lower, casting a faint shadow over one of the brighter spots in the U.S. economy.

	Support	Resistance
EURUSD	1.28993	1.29806
	1.28487	1.30113
	1.27674	1.30926

GBPUSD

(Bloomberg) Sterling was set for a second monthly decline against the dollar. The average cost of a home was 163,853 pounds ($262,300) in November, Swindon, England-based Nationwide said today. House values may drop modestly over the next year because of subdued wage growth, it added. U.K. gilts were little changed, with yields within three basis points of the lowest in more than a week. Spanish and Italian bonds advanced, fueling optimism the euro regions debt crisis is easing. Overall the picture for sterling is going to turn more negative, said Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. Sterling has been relatively well supported by safe-haven flows from Europe but as volatility and risk premium in European asset markets reduces, these flows are slowing down. That is going to expose sterling to its underlying fundamentals, which I don't think are positive. Sterling fell 0.2 percent to 81.04 pence per euro at 9:46 a.m. London time after depreciating to 81.14 pence on Nov. 27, the weakest level since Oct. 24. The pound was little changed at $1.6027.

	Support	Resistance
GBPUSD	1.59756	1.60348
	1.59387	1.60571
	1.58795	1.61163

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three weeks as investor holdings expanded to a record and optimism returned that the so-called fiscal cliff in the U.S. will be avoided, hurting the dollar. Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,723.16 an ounce by 9:17 a.m. in London. Bullion for February delivery gained 0.4 percent to $1,725 an ounce on the Comex in New York. We're not seeing signs of any significant follow-through selling, said Nick Trevethan, a senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) in Singapore. The factors supporting gold really haven't gone away. You still have large amounts of liquidity in the system, you're seeing central banks trying to support markets. Gold, little changed this month, has climbed 10 percent this year after central banks from the U.S. to Europe took more steps to boost growth, raising concern currencies may weaken. Gold rallied 70 percent as the Federal Reserve bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1,704.5	1,741.7
	1,686.5	1,760.9
	1,649.3	1,798.1

SILVER

Silver was little changed at $33.74 an ounce.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	33.10	34.23
	32.44	34.70
	31.31	35.83

+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Oil rose for the first time in four days in New York after U.S. stockpiles declined unexpectedly and political leaders in the world's biggest crude consumer expressed optimism about agreeing on a federal budget. Futures advanced as much as 1.2 percent after sliding 0.8 percent yesterday to a two-week low. Republican House Speaker John Boehner believes talks on tax increases and spending cuts known collectively as the fiscal cliff can avert this crisis sooner rather than later, he told reporters. President Barack Obama said he hopes to reach a deal before Christmas. U.S. crude supplies slid 347,000 barrels last week, an Energy Department report showed. They were forecast to climb 350,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. "The oil market is still reasonably tight," said Tobias Merath, head of commodity research at Credit Suisse AG in Zurich, who predicts crude will rise about $5 a barrel over the next three months. "There could be a year-end rally for crude as global supply growth seems to be peaking, and economic growth has surprised a bit to the upside." West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery climbed as much as $1.01 to $87.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $87.49 at 10:48 a.m. London time. The contract pared a decline of as much as $1.82 yesterday to close down 69 cents at $86.49, the lowest since Nov. 15. Prices have fallen 11 percent this year.

	Support	Resistance
+CLF13	85.56	87.45
	84.52	88.30
	82.63	90.19

@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) The S&P 500 climbed 0.8 percent to 1,409.93 in New York, after erasing a decline of as much as 1 percent.. J.C. Penney Co. rallied 4.6 percent as consumer staples and discretionary stocks posted gains among 10 groups in the S&P 500. Knight Capital Group Inc. (KCG) jumped 15 percent after receiving takeover offers from Getco LLC and Virtu Financial LLC. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) dropped 1.3 percent as commodities declined.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1,389.00	1,414.50
	1,373.25	1,424.25
	1,347.75	1,449.75