Sunday, December 2, 2012

Forex Daily Analysis 03-12-2012


EURUSD

(Bloomberg) The euro rose to a more than one- month high against the dollar after German lawmakers approved Greece's latest rescue package. The yen slid to the weakest in seven months versus the shared currency after data showed Japan's consumer prices stagnated in October, adding to speculation the central bank will increase stimulus to spur inflation. The euro held gains after House Speaker John Boehner criticized President Obama's budget proposal and said right now, we're almost nowhere on fiscal-cliff talks. Norway's krone rose the most on speculation of a boost in interest rates. What we've seen at least over the course of this week is an ongoing improvement in European sentiment, Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in a telephone interview. Today's news that Germany's parliament approved a Greek deal is a positive development. The euro gained 0.1 percent to $1.2986 at 5 p.m. New York time after touching $1.3028, the strongest since Oct. 23. It extended its monthly gain to 0.2 percent. The yen depreciated 0.5 percent to 107.11 per euro after sliding to 107.67, the weakest level since April 23. It is down 3.6 percent this month. Japan's currency fell 0.4 percent to 82.48 per dollar to increase its November drop to 3.3 percent.


Support
Resistance
EURUSD
1.29720
1.30315
1.29400
1.30590
1.28805
1.3115




GBPUSD

(Bloomberg) The pound fell for a third week versus the euro, touching the lowest level in more than a month, as bets European policy makers are taking steps to stem the debt crisis damped demand for the safety of U.K. assets. Sterling was little changed against the dollar after a report showed gross domestic product rose 1 percent in the third quarter, matching an earlier estimate. The German parliament yesterday approved the latest rescue package for Greece after euro-region finance ministers Nov. 27 agreement to ease the terms of the nation's bailout. Gilts rose as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney was unexpectedly appointed as the next head of the Bank of England. Sterling's decline against the euro is a function of improving short-term European sentiment over Greece, said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. Carney is well respected. I would suggest the appointment is good for U.K assets in the longer term. The pound fell 0.3 percent from Nov. 23 to 81.18 pence per euro at 4:54 p.m. London time yesterday after depreciating to 81.33 pence, the weakest level since Oct. 24. The U.K. currency was little changed on the week at $1.6023, after touching $1.6063, the most since Nov. 2. Sterling has weakened 1.4 percent in the past six months, the third-worst performer after the yen and the dollar among the 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Indexes. The yen fell 9.6 percent, the dollar dropped 5.1 percent and the euro rose 0.4 percent.

Support
Resistance
GBPUSD
1.59850
1.60586
1.59496
1.60968
1.58760
1.61704






GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold capped its biggest weekly drop in more than five months on concern that U.S. lawmakers may fail to reach a settlement in talks aimed at avoiding self-imposed tax increases and budget cuts known as the fiscal cliff. Republican House Speaker John Boehner told reporters that budget talks were in a stalemate and the Obama administration's offer yesterday wasn't a serious proposal. The president said today he expects prolonged negotiations. Gold tumbled 2.2 percent this week, the most since June 22. Fiscal-cliff concern is keeping investors on the sidelines, Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Gold futures for February delivery slid 1 percent to settle at $1,712.70 an ounce at 1:43 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices retreated 0.4 percent this month, the second straight loss.

Support
Resistance
GOLD
1704.90
1728.10
1695.00
1741.40
1671.80
1764.60






SILVER

(Bloomberg) Silver futures for March delivery fell 3.3 percent to $33.279 an ounce on the Comex. Prices dropped 2.7 percent this week, the most since Nov. 2. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for January delivery slipped 0.9 percent to $1,604.60 an ounce, extending the weekly loss to 0.8 percent. Palladium futures for March delivery gained 0.1 percent to $688.20 an ounce. Prices rose 3.1 percent this week, the fifth straight gain.

Support
Resistance
SILVER
32.92
34.12
32.42
34.82
31.22
36.02






+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Oil capped its first monthly increase since August on signals that economic expansion in the U.S. is accelerating. Futures rose 1 percent after the MNI Chicago Report's business barometer showed activity in the U.S. grew in November for the first time in three months. Investors also weighed developments in U.S. budget talks as Democrats and Republicans discussed how to avoid more than $600 billion a year in spending cuts and tax increases known as the fiscal cliff. The Chicago numbers were a little better than expected, said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. It's likely that we will end the year above $90 a barrel because of tightening inventories and the likelihood that there will be a budget agreement. Crude oil for January delivery advanced 84 cents to $88.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 19. Futures increased 0.7 percent this week and gained 3.1 percent this month. Prices are down 10 percent this year.

Support
Resistance
+CLF13
87.98
89.39
87.07
89.89
85.66
91.30






@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose a second week, the longest advance since September, as investors watched developments in government budget negotiations amid better-than-anticipated economic reports. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and EBay Inc. gained more than 5 percent for the week as online spending surged 17 percent on the Monday after Thanksgiving. Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) added 6.1 percent as the largest U.S. warehouse-club chain announced a special dividend. Knight Capital Group Inc. soared 35 percent after receiving takeover bids from Getco LLC and Virtu Financial LLC. The S&P 500 (SPX) increased 0.5 percent to 1,416.18 for the week. The benchmark measure for American equities extended its rally since Nov. 16 to 4.1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 15.90 points, or 0.1 percent, to 13,025.58. The market has been incredibly reactive to what's coming out of Washington with regards to the fiscal cliff issue, said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab Corp. in Austin, Texas. His firm has $1.9 trillion in client assets. In general, the consensus is that they are going to get this resolved at least to some degree that the market will be satisfied with.

Support
Resistance
@ESZ12
1409.50
1418.75
1405.25
1423.50
1395.75
1432.75


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