ICM Capital Daily Market Update - Tuesday 13 December 2016

EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot: 1.0595 Our preference: long positions above 1.0595 with targets at 1.0680 & 1.0705 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.0595 look for further downside with 1.0550 & 1.0525 as targets. Comment: technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 115.60 Our preference: short positions below 115.60 with targets at 114.60 & 114.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 115.60 look for further upside with 116.15 & 116.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

GBP/USD Intraday: aim @ 1.2700.

Pivot: 1.2640 Our preference: long positions above 1.2640 with targets at 1.2700 & 1.2740 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.2640 look for further downside with 1.2620 & 1.2595 as targets. Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Gold spot Intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 1160.00 Our preference: long positions above 1160.00 with targets at 1169.00 & 1172.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1160.00 look for further downside with 1154.50 & 1151.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Silver spot Intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 16.9500 Our preference: long positions above 16.9500 with targets at 17.2400 & 17.3500 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 16.9500 look for further downside with 16.8200 & 16.7300 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias. Prices broke above a broadening wedge pattern (bullish)

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Crude Oil (WTI) (F7) Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 53.45 Our preference: short positions below 53.45 with targets at 51.90 & 51.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 53.45 look for further upside with 54.50 & 55.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further decline.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dax (Eurex) (Z6) Intraday: bullish bias above 11000.00.

Pivot: 11000.00 Our preference: long positions above 11000.00 with targets at 11255.00 & 11400.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 11000.00 look for further downside with 10900.00 & 10785.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dow Jones (CME) (H7) Intraday: bullish bias above 19635.00.

Pivot: 19635.00 Our preference: long positions above 19635.00 with targets at 19809.00 & 19860.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 19635.00 look for further downside with 19530.00 & 19425.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. The 50-period exponential moving average is playing a support role.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Daily Market Update - Friday 09 December 2016

EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 1.0635 Our preference: short positions below 1.0635 with targets at 1.0570 & 1.0535 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.0635 look for further upside with 1.0680 & 1.0710 as targets. Comment: the RSI broke below a bullish trend line.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

USD/JPY Intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 114.13 Our preference: long positions above 114.13 with targets at 114.75 & 115.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 114.13 look for further downside with 113.85 & 113.66 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.2605.

Pivot: 1.2605 Our preference: short positions below 1.2605 with targets at 1.2545 & 1.2510 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.2605 look for further upside with 1.2655 & 1.2700 as targets. Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1.2605.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Gold spot Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1173.50 Our preference: short positions below 1173.50 with targets at 1162.00 & 1157.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1173.50 look for further upside with 1180.00 & 1188.00 as targets. Comment: technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Silver spot Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 17.0300 Our preference: short positions below 17.0300 with targets at 16.8200 & 16.7300 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 17.0300 look for further upside with 17.1100 & 17.2300 as targets. Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Crude Oil (WTI) (F7) Intraday: bullish bias above 50.25.

Pivot: 50.25 Our preference: long positions above 50.25 with targets at 51.90 & 52.43 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 50.25 look for further downside with 49.60 & 49.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dax (Eurex) (Z6) Intraday: bullish bias above 10900.00.

Pivot: 10900.00 Our preference: long positions above 10900.00 with targets at 11130.00 & 11230.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 10900.00 look for further downside with 10815.00 & 10740.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dow Jones (CME) (H7) Intraday: further upside.

Pivot: 19425.00 Our preference: long positions above 19425.00 with targets at 19630.00 & 19750.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 19425.00 look for further downside with 19290.00 & 19205.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Daily Market Update - Thursday 08 December 2016

EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot: 1.0735 Our preference: long positions above 1.0735 with targets at 1.0795 & 1.0820 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.0735 look for further downside with 1.0700 & 1.0680 as targets. Comment: the RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 113.87 Our preference: short positions below 113.87 with targets at 113.12 & 112.95 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 113.87 look for further upside with 114.40 & 114.75 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further decline.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

GBP/USD Intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 1.2600 Our preference: long positions above 1.2600 with targets at 1.2695 & 1.2735 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.2600 look for further downside with 1.2560 & 1.2515 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Gold spot Intraday: further upside.

Pivot: 1171.00 Our preference: long positions above 1171.00 with targets at 1185.00 & 1188.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1171.00 look for further downside with 1165.00 & 1160.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI broke above a bearish trend line.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Silver spot Intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 16.9800 Our preference: long positions above 16.9800 with targets at 17.3700 & 17.5100 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 16.9800 look for further downside with 16.8200 & 16.6200 as targets. Comment: the RSI broke above a declining trend line.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Crude Oil (WTI) (F7) Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 51.10 Our preference: short positions below 51.10 with targets at 48.80 & 48.24 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 51.10 look for further upside with 51.60 & 52.40 as targets. Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dax (Eurex) (Z6) Intraday: bullish bias above 10740.00.

Pivot: 10740.00 Our preference: long positions above 10740.00 with targets at 10975.00 & 11055.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 10740.00 look for further downside with 10630.00 & 10545.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dow Jones (CME) (Z6) Intraday: bullish bias above 19310.00.

Pivot: 19310.00 Our preference: long positions above 19310.00 with targets at 19630.00 & 19700.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 19310.00 look for further downside with 19175.00 & 19085.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Today Market Analysis 20-12-2012

EUR/USD

(Reuters) The euro was little changed on the dollar at $1.3222, having slipped from an 8-month high of $1.33085 reached on Wednesday after German business confidence data beat market expectations. In addition, a fall in southern European countries' bond yields also added to support for the euro earlier. But it later gave up gains against the dollar while the yen also rebounded from multi-month lows as talks to resolve the U.S. fiscal impasse appeared to have taken a turn for the worse. The euro stood at 111.32 yen, down about 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels and off a 16-month high of 112.59 yen hit on Wednesday. The Republicans announced plans to put an alternative tax plan to a vote in the House this week, prompting President Barack Obama to threaten to veto it should Congress approve, threatening to unravel progress made over the last week. "Democrats and Republicans continued to try to frighten each other into gaining the upper hand. They mostly managed to bring in a mild wave of profit-taking in the markets," said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale.

	Support	Resistance
EUR/USD	1.31678	1.32872
	1.31182	1.33570
	1.30484	1.34066

USD/JPY

(Reuters) The yen kept slim gains on Thursday after the Bank of Japan eased monetary policy as expected, increasing its asset purchases by 10 trillion yen and saying it would review its policy goal in a likely move towards adopting an inflation target. After choppy moves, the dollar steadied at around 84.14 yen , almost the same level as before the BOJ's decision and down about 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels. "Some people are selling the dollar/yen after the big event is over ahead of Christmas holidays," said Yunosuke Ikeda, senior FX strategist at Nomura Securities. The dollar has gained about 6 percent against the yen in the past month or so, on speculation that Japan's new government will push the BOJ to take more aggressive easing steps. In a move seen as an attempt to placate incoming prime minister Shinzo Abe, who has called for unlimited easing to achieve 2 percent inflation, the BOJ also said it would review its stance on price stability. At present, the BOJ has a goal of 1 percent inflation. Still, all that had already been priced in when the dollar hit a 20-month high of 84.62 yen on Wednesday, market players said. The euro stood at 111.32 yen, down about 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels and off a 16-month high of 112.59 yen hit on Wednesday.

	Support	Resistance
USD/JPY	84.010	84.687
	83.631	84.985
	83.333	85.364

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold traded near the lowest level since August as an impasse in U.S. budget talks helped to boost the dollar, countering investor holdings in exchange-traded products at an all-time high. Spot gold was little changed at $1,666.80 an ounce at 12:04 p.m. in Singapore after dropping 0.2 percent yesterday and falling to $1,661.10 on Dec. 18, the lowest since Aug. 31, on signs of progress in the U.S. negotiations. Gold for February delivery was at $1,667.90 an ounce from $1,667.70 on the Comex. Officials in President Barack Obama's administration told leaders of business and financial-services groups that talks with House Speaker John Boehner have deteriorated in the past 24 hours, a person familiar with the meeting said. Lawmakers are negotiating to avert more than $600 billion in automatic tax rises and spending cuts set to start in January, known as the fiscal cliff. The Dollar Index snapped a four-day decline. We've had a few violent moves towards the downside, said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt's Bulletin, a commodity newsletter in Sydney. Looking into 2013, we still feel confident about prices eventually moving higher, he said, citing prospects for increased ETP demand, central-bank buying and a weaker dollar next year. Holdings in ETPs climbed 12 percent this year to 2,631.794 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bullion has advanced 6.6 percent this year, set for a 12th annual gain, as central banks around the world added to stimulus.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1668.9	1682.3
	1659.4	1686.2
	1655.5	1695.7

SILVER

(Bloomberg) Cash silver rose as much as 0.5 percent to $31.20 an ounce, and was at $31.0888. The metal, which has risen 12 percent this year, may rally to $40.25 in 2013, based on the median of 49 analyst, trader and investor estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	31.32	32.14
	30.74	32.38
	30.50	32.96

WTI (Crude Oil)

(Bloomberg) Oil fell from the highest level in two months in New York on speculation its four-day gain was exaggerated as budget negotiations faltered in the U.S., threatening the economy of the world's biggest crude user. West Texas Intermediate futures slid as much as 0.5 percent, snapping the longest winning streak since September. Officials from President Barack Obama's administration told leaders of business and financial services groups that talks with House Speaker John Boehner have deteriorated in the past 24 hours, a person familiar with the meeting said. U.S. oil inventories last week were 15 percent above the five-year average, a report from the Energy Department showed. Oil's had a big rally over the past few days, but looks like it's losing steam, said Victor Shum, the managing director at IHS Consulting in Singapore who predicts New York crude has technical resistance at $90 a barrel. If one looks beyond the near-term bullishness, we have a market that is well supplied. Crude for February delivery slid as much as 45 cents to $89.53 a barrel and was at $89.66 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:26 p.m. Singapore time. The January contract, which expired yesterday, rose $1.58 to $89.51, the highest settlement since Oct. 19. The volume traded for all futures today was about 8 percent below the 100-day average. Brent for February settlement slipped 27 cents to $110.09 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $20.43 to WTI, compared with $20.38 yesterday.

	Support	Resistance
+CLG13	87.41	89.46
	86.81	90.91
	85.36	91.51

S & P 500 Index

U.S. stocks fell, pulling the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (VIX) down from a two-month high, as deteriorating federal budget negotiations fueled concern that automatic tax increases and spending cuts will be triggered. The S&P 500 lost 0.8 percent to 1,435.81 today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 98.99 points, or 0.7 percent, to 13,251.97. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, jumped 12 percent to 17.36 for the biggest gain since Oct. 23. The underlying situation for U.S. equities isn't bad, but a lot hinges on the fiscal cliff negotiations, George Feiger, chief executive officer of Contango Capital Advisors Inc., the San Francisco-based wealth management arm of Zions Bancorporation, said in a phone interview. He manages about $3.6 billion at Contango and Western National Trust Co. If we get through the fiscal cliff with a reasonable result, then the odds are quite substantial that things are going to be better than many people expect by the middle of 2013, he said. All of this can be postponed for a year if they screw up on the negotiations and we slide into a recession.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1436.38	1454.63
	1425.06	1461.56
	1418.13	1472.88

Today Market Analysis 04-12-2012

EURUSD

(Bloomberg) The euro traded 0.1 percent from a six-week high versus the dollar before European Union finance ministers meet in Brussels today amid optimism the region can find solutions for its debt crisis. The euro held a three-day gain against the yen after Greece offered to spend as much as 10 billion euros ($13 billion) to buy back government securities and as Spain said it expects funds for bank recapitalization next week. The dollar remained lower as U.S. lawmakers continue negotiations on how to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases. Demand for Australi's currency was limited on speculation the central bank will lower interest rates today. The euro fetched $1.3056 as of 8:26 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3054 yesterday, when it touched $1.3076, the most since Oct. 23. The shared currency was little changed at 107.30 yen from yesterday, having risen 1 percent in the past three sessions. The U.S. currency slid 0.1 percent to 82.19 yen. The so-called Aussie traded at $1.0425 from $1.0421, after having fallen 0.5 percent in the past three days.

	Support	Resistance
EURUSD	1.30123	1.30945
	1.29614	1.31258
	1.28798	1.32080

AUDUSD

(Bloomberg) The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to the half-century low set during the 2009 global recession as hiring falters and an elevated currency hurts industries such as manufacturing and tourism. Governor Glenn Stevens and his board reduced the overnight cash-rate target by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Sydney today. The sixth cut in the past 14 months was predicted by 20 of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rate matches the level reached from April-October 2009 that was the lowest since 1960. In his statement, Stevens said the local dollar remains higher than might have been expected given lower export prices and a weaker global outlook. His decision to ease the highest policy rate among major developed economies reflects Australia's contained wage pressure, lower projected mining spending and an unemployment rate at a 2 1/2-year high. The cut is an attempt to smooth the transition from resources to the broader sectors of the economy that are currency and interest-rate sensitive, said Martin Whetton, interest-rate strategist for Australia at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. There feels like theres a level of frustration in the statement about the currency. The so-called Aussie advanced after the decision, buying $1.0437 at 4:56 p.m. in Sydney compared with $1.0426 before the decision. The yield on three-year government debt advanced to 2.62 percent, up four basis points from yesterday. Australian financial stocks declined, with the S&P/ASX 200 Finance Index falling 0.5 percent.

	Support	Resistance
AUDUSD	1.04004	1.04533
	1.03699	1.04757
	1.03170	1.05286

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold dropped as the stalemate in U.S. budget talks weighed on commodities, countering record assets in exchange-traded products. Silver, platinum and palladium fell. Spot gold slid as much as 0.2 percent to $1,712.35 an ounce, and traded at $1,712.88 at 12:37 p.m. in Singapore. Bullion for February delivery declined 0.4 percent to $1,714.70 an ounce on the Comex in New York, while oil and copper retreated. Holdings in ETPs, up 11 percent this year, expanded to 2,623.446 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. U.S. lawmakers are trying to avert more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts starting in January. House Republicans, rejecting President Barack Obama's demand for higher tax rates, yesterday countered with a $2.2 trillion deficit-cutting plan, which White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said does not meet the test of balance. Gold will be driven by sentiment in the broader financial markets in the near term as investors weigh the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations, said Xiang Nan, an analyst at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China's biggest listed brokerage. Gold may advance as businesses temper spending and central- bank stimulus measures fall short, John Gilbert, chief investment officer at General Re-New England Asset Management, a unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), wrote in a newsletter. Buffett said in a February letter to Berkshire shareholders that investors should avoid gold, because its uses are limited and it doesn't have the potential of farmland or companies to produce new wealth.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1711.40	1721.50
	1707.00	1727.20
	1696.90	1737.30

SILVER

(Bloomberg) Spot silver fell 0.6 percent to $33.4538 an ounce, spot platinum lost 0.3 percent to $1,600.50 an ounce, and palladium slipped 0.8 percent to $685.50 an ounce.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	33.38	33.83
	33.16	34.06
	32.71	34.51

+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Crude rose to the highest level in two weeks after Chinese manufacturing grew the most in seven months in November. Prices advanced for a third day as China's Purchasing Managers Index rose on new orders and export demand. Futures pared gains, which took them to a six-week intraday high, after the Institute for Supply Management reported U.S. factory output last month fell to the lowest level since July 2009. People are looking for economic news to see what's going on, and China's manufacturing number is a good sign, said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. The ISM brought investors back to earth and took out whatever enthusiasm there was over the Chinese numbers earlier. Oil for January delivery gained 18 cents to $89.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 19. Prices advanced 3.1 percent last month and are down 9.9 percent in 2012.

	Support	Resistance
+CLF13	88.37	90.03
	87.68	91.00
	86.02	92.66

@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) U.S. stocks fell, following a two- week advance for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as an unexpected contraction in manufacturing spurred concern about the potential economic toll from the so-called fiscal cliff. DuPont Co., the most valuable U.S. chemical maker, fell 1.7 percent, leading raw-materials producers to the biggest drop among 10 S&P 500 groups. Dell Inc. (DELL) rallied 4.4 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended buying the shares. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5 percent to 1,409.46 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 59.98 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,965.60. More than 5.6 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 9.4 percent below the three- month average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fiscal cliff concerns are actually affecting decision making at the business level,Andres Garcia-Amaya, New York- based global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s mutual funds unit, which oversee $400 billion in assets, said in a phone interview. China is starting to show signs of life. The U.S. was showing signs of life, but we have the geopolitical issue that's impeding us from moving forward. All in all, just confusing the market.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1398.75	1418.25
	1392.00	1430.50
	1372.75	1449.75