The Australian Dollar is retreating. Overview for 06.12.2016

 

The AUD/USD pair is trading downwards after another meeting of the RBA.

The Australian Dollar is being sold against the USD on Tuesday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7444.

So, the December meeting of the RBA finished this morning. Just as expected, the rate remained unchanged at 1.5%. Right now, it’s too early to revise the indicator because the previous decrease hasn’t produced any observable effects so far. In its comments, the Australian regulator mentioned that it didn’t exclude a possibility of a particular slowdown in economic growth at the end of the year – but it’s just a pause before a new shoot forward. The real estate sector stabilized, or even improved in some aspects; in some cases, there might be seen a rise in housing prices, which is also positive. The labor market is still providing some mixed signals, but in the short-term, the employment is improving and this tendency may transform into a long-term one later.  

When it comes to the inflation in Australia, the RBA estimates it as very low at the moment and doesn’t expect it to increase. The current high exchange rate of the Aussie can make the transition period in the country’s economy more difficult.

Now, after the regulator’s new management mentioned the AUD and its influence on the country’s economy in its comments, we can say that the rhetoric of Mr. Stevens, ex-Governor of the RBA, is back. It appears that Mr. Lowe, the current Governor of the Australian Central Bank, reached the same point of the monetary policy stability as Stevens did in his time.

The neutral tone of the RBA’s comments put some more pressure on the Aussie. In the morning, large banks published their prediction relating to the country’s GDP, which indicated their expectations of a slowdown in economic growth.
 

Today Market Analysis 20-12-2012

EUR/USD

(Reuters) The euro was little changed on the dollar at $1.3222, having slipped from an 8-month high of $1.33085 reached on Wednesday after German business confidence data beat market expectations. In addition, a fall in southern European countries' bond yields also added to support for the euro earlier. But it later gave up gains against the dollar while the yen also rebounded from multi-month lows as talks to resolve the U.S. fiscal impasse appeared to have taken a turn for the worse. The euro stood at 111.32 yen, down about 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels and off a 16-month high of 112.59 yen hit on Wednesday. The Republicans announced plans to put an alternative tax plan to a vote in the House this week, prompting President Barack Obama to threaten to veto it should Congress approve, threatening to unravel progress made over the last week. "Democrats and Republicans continued to try to frighten each other into gaining the upper hand. They mostly managed to bring in a mild wave of profit-taking in the markets," said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale.

	Support	Resistance
EUR/USD	1.31678	1.32872
	1.31182	1.33570
	1.30484	1.34066

USD/JPY

(Reuters) The yen kept slim gains on Thursday after the Bank of Japan eased monetary policy as expected, increasing its asset purchases by 10 trillion yen and saying it would review its policy goal in a likely move towards adopting an inflation target. After choppy moves, the dollar steadied at around 84.14 yen , almost the same level as before the BOJ's decision and down about 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels. "Some people are selling the dollar/yen after the big event is over ahead of Christmas holidays," said Yunosuke Ikeda, senior FX strategist at Nomura Securities. The dollar has gained about 6 percent against the yen in the past month or so, on speculation that Japan's new government will push the BOJ to take more aggressive easing steps. In a move seen as an attempt to placate incoming prime minister Shinzo Abe, who has called for unlimited easing to achieve 2 percent inflation, the BOJ also said it would review its stance on price stability. At present, the BOJ has a goal of 1 percent inflation. Still, all that had already been priced in when the dollar hit a 20-month high of 84.62 yen on Wednesday, market players said. The euro stood at 111.32 yen, down about 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels and off a 16-month high of 112.59 yen hit on Wednesday.

	Support	Resistance
USD/JPY	84.010	84.687
	83.631	84.985
	83.333	85.364

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold traded near the lowest level since August as an impasse in U.S. budget talks helped to boost the dollar, countering investor holdings in exchange-traded products at an all-time high. Spot gold was little changed at $1,666.80 an ounce at 12:04 p.m. in Singapore after dropping 0.2 percent yesterday and falling to $1,661.10 on Dec. 18, the lowest since Aug. 31, on signs of progress in the U.S. negotiations. Gold for February delivery was at $1,667.90 an ounce from $1,667.70 on the Comex. Officials in President Barack Obama's administration told leaders of business and financial-services groups that talks with House Speaker John Boehner have deteriorated in the past 24 hours, a person familiar with the meeting said. Lawmakers are negotiating to avert more than $600 billion in automatic tax rises and spending cuts set to start in January, known as the fiscal cliff. The Dollar Index snapped a four-day decline. We've had a few violent moves towards the downside, said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt's Bulletin, a commodity newsletter in Sydney. Looking into 2013, we still feel confident about prices eventually moving higher, he said, citing prospects for increased ETP demand, central-bank buying and a weaker dollar next year. Holdings in ETPs climbed 12 percent this year to 2,631.794 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bullion has advanced 6.6 percent this year, set for a 12th annual gain, as central banks around the world added to stimulus.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1668.9	1682.3
	1659.4	1686.2
	1655.5	1695.7

SILVER

(Bloomberg) Cash silver rose as much as 0.5 percent to $31.20 an ounce, and was at $31.0888. The metal, which has risen 12 percent this year, may rally to $40.25 in 2013, based on the median of 49 analyst, trader and investor estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	31.32	32.14
	30.74	32.38
	30.50	32.96

WTI (Crude Oil)

(Bloomberg) Oil fell from the highest level in two months in New York on speculation its four-day gain was exaggerated as budget negotiations faltered in the U.S., threatening the economy of the world's biggest crude user. West Texas Intermediate futures slid as much as 0.5 percent, snapping the longest winning streak since September. Officials from President Barack Obama's administration told leaders of business and financial services groups that talks with House Speaker John Boehner have deteriorated in the past 24 hours, a person familiar with the meeting said. U.S. oil inventories last week were 15 percent above the five-year average, a report from the Energy Department showed. Oil's had a big rally over the past few days, but looks like it's losing steam, said Victor Shum, the managing director at IHS Consulting in Singapore who predicts New York crude has technical resistance at $90 a barrel. If one looks beyond the near-term bullishness, we have a market that is well supplied. Crude for February delivery slid as much as 45 cents to $89.53 a barrel and was at $89.66 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:26 p.m. Singapore time. The January contract, which expired yesterday, rose $1.58 to $89.51, the highest settlement since Oct. 19. The volume traded for all futures today was about 8 percent below the 100-day average. Brent for February settlement slipped 27 cents to $110.09 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $20.43 to WTI, compared with $20.38 yesterday.

	Support	Resistance
+CLG13	87.41	89.46
	86.81	90.91
	85.36	91.51

S & P 500 Index

U.S. stocks fell, pulling the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (VIX) down from a two-month high, as deteriorating federal budget negotiations fueled concern that automatic tax increases and spending cuts will be triggered. The S&P 500 lost 0.8 percent to 1,435.81 today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 98.99 points, or 0.7 percent, to 13,251.97. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, jumped 12 percent to 17.36 for the biggest gain since Oct. 23. The underlying situation for U.S. equities isn't bad, but a lot hinges on the fiscal cliff negotiations, George Feiger, chief executive officer of Contango Capital Advisors Inc., the San Francisco-based wealth management arm of Zions Bancorporation, said in a phone interview. He manages about $3.6 billion at Contango and Western National Trust Co. If we get through the fiscal cliff with a reasonable result, then the odds are quite substantial that things are going to be better than many people expect by the middle of 2013, he said. All of this can be postponed for a year if they screw up on the negotiations and we slide into a recession.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1436.38	1454.63
	1425.06	1461.56
	1418.13	1472.88

Today Market Analysis 04-12-2012

EURUSD

(Bloomberg) The euro traded 0.1 percent from a six-week high versus the dollar before European Union finance ministers meet in Brussels today amid optimism the region can find solutions for its debt crisis. The euro held a three-day gain against the yen after Greece offered to spend as much as 10 billion euros ($13 billion) to buy back government securities and as Spain said it expects funds for bank recapitalization next week. The dollar remained lower as U.S. lawmakers continue negotiations on how to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases. Demand for Australi's currency was limited on speculation the central bank will lower interest rates today. The euro fetched $1.3056 as of 8:26 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3054 yesterday, when it touched $1.3076, the most since Oct. 23. The shared currency was little changed at 107.30 yen from yesterday, having risen 1 percent in the past three sessions. The U.S. currency slid 0.1 percent to 82.19 yen. The so-called Aussie traded at $1.0425 from $1.0421, after having fallen 0.5 percent in the past three days.

	Support	Resistance
EURUSD	1.30123	1.30945
	1.29614	1.31258
	1.28798	1.32080

AUDUSD

(Bloomberg) The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to the half-century low set during the 2009 global recession as hiring falters and an elevated currency hurts industries such as manufacturing and tourism. Governor Glenn Stevens and his board reduced the overnight cash-rate target by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Sydney today. The sixth cut in the past 14 months was predicted by 20 of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rate matches the level reached from April-October 2009 that was the lowest since 1960. In his statement, Stevens said the local dollar remains higher than might have been expected given lower export prices and a weaker global outlook. His decision to ease the highest policy rate among major developed economies reflects Australia's contained wage pressure, lower projected mining spending and an unemployment rate at a 2 1/2-year high. The cut is an attempt to smooth the transition from resources to the broader sectors of the economy that are currency and interest-rate sensitive, said Martin Whetton, interest-rate strategist for Australia at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. There feels like theres a level of frustration in the statement about the currency. The so-called Aussie advanced after the decision, buying $1.0437 at 4:56 p.m. in Sydney compared with $1.0426 before the decision. The yield on three-year government debt advanced to 2.62 percent, up four basis points from yesterday. Australian financial stocks declined, with the S&P/ASX 200 Finance Index falling 0.5 percent.

	Support	Resistance
AUDUSD	1.04004	1.04533
	1.03699	1.04757
	1.03170	1.05286

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold dropped as the stalemate in U.S. budget talks weighed on commodities, countering record assets in exchange-traded products. Silver, platinum and palladium fell. Spot gold slid as much as 0.2 percent to $1,712.35 an ounce, and traded at $1,712.88 at 12:37 p.m. in Singapore. Bullion for February delivery declined 0.4 percent to $1,714.70 an ounce on the Comex in New York, while oil and copper retreated. Holdings in ETPs, up 11 percent this year, expanded to 2,623.446 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. U.S. lawmakers are trying to avert more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts starting in January. House Republicans, rejecting President Barack Obama's demand for higher tax rates, yesterday countered with a $2.2 trillion deficit-cutting plan, which White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said does not meet the test of balance. Gold will be driven by sentiment in the broader financial markets in the near term as investors weigh the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations, said Xiang Nan, an analyst at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China's biggest listed brokerage. Gold may advance as businesses temper spending and central- bank stimulus measures fall short, John Gilbert, chief investment officer at General Re-New England Asset Management, a unit of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), wrote in a newsletter. Buffett said in a February letter to Berkshire shareholders that investors should avoid gold, because its uses are limited and it doesn't have the potential of farmland or companies to produce new wealth.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1711.40	1721.50
	1707.00	1727.20
	1696.90	1737.30

SILVER

(Bloomberg) Spot silver fell 0.6 percent to $33.4538 an ounce, spot platinum lost 0.3 percent to $1,600.50 an ounce, and palladium slipped 0.8 percent to $685.50 an ounce.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	33.38	33.83
	33.16	34.06
	32.71	34.51

+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Crude rose to the highest level in two weeks after Chinese manufacturing grew the most in seven months in November. Prices advanced for a third day as China's Purchasing Managers Index rose on new orders and export demand. Futures pared gains, which took them to a six-week intraday high, after the Institute for Supply Management reported U.S. factory output last month fell to the lowest level since July 2009. People are looking for economic news to see what's going on, and China's manufacturing number is a good sign, said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. The ISM brought investors back to earth and took out whatever enthusiasm there was over the Chinese numbers earlier. Oil for January delivery gained 18 cents to $89.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 19. Prices advanced 3.1 percent last month and are down 9.9 percent in 2012.

	Support	Resistance
+CLF13	88.37	90.03
	87.68	91.00
	86.02	92.66

@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) U.S. stocks fell, following a two- week advance for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as an unexpected contraction in manufacturing spurred concern about the potential economic toll from the so-called fiscal cliff. DuPont Co., the most valuable U.S. chemical maker, fell 1.7 percent, leading raw-materials producers to the biggest drop among 10 S&P 500 groups. Dell Inc. (DELL) rallied 4.4 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended buying the shares. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5 percent to 1,409.46 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 59.98 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,965.60. More than 5.6 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 9.4 percent below the three- month average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fiscal cliff concerns are actually affecting decision making at the business level,Andres Garcia-Amaya, New York- based global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s mutual funds unit, which oversee $400 billion in assets, said in a phone interview. China is starting to show signs of life. The U.S. was showing signs of life, but we have the geopolitical issue that's impeding us from moving forward. All in all, just confusing the market.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1398.75	1418.25
	1392.00	1430.50
	1372.75	1449.75

Forex Daily Analysis 03-12-2012

EURUSD

(Bloomberg) The euro rose to a more than one- month high against the dollar after German lawmakers approved Greece's latest rescue package. The yen slid to the weakest in seven months versus the shared currency after data showed Japan's consumer prices stagnated in October, adding to speculation the central bank will increase stimulus to spur inflation. The euro held gains after House Speaker John Boehner criticized President Obama's budget proposal and said right now, we're almost nowhere on fiscal-cliff talks. Norway's krone rose the most on speculation of a boost in interest rates. What we've seen at least over the course of this week is an ongoing improvement in European sentiment, Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in a telephone interview. Today's news that Germany's parliament approved a Greek deal is a positive development. The euro gained 0.1 percent to $1.2986 at 5 p.m. New York time after touching $1.3028, the strongest since Oct. 23. It extended its monthly gain to 0.2 percent. The yen depreciated 0.5 percent to 107.11 per euro after sliding to 107.67, the weakest level since April 23. It is down 3.6 percent this month. Japan's currency fell 0.4 percent to 82.48 per dollar to increase its November drop to 3.3 percent.

	Support	Resistance
EURUSD	1.29720	1.30315
	1.29400	1.30590
	1.28805	1.3115

GBPUSD

(Bloomberg) The pound fell for a third week versus the euro, touching the lowest level in more than a month, as bets European policy makers are taking steps to stem the debt crisis damped demand for the safety of U.K. assets. Sterling was little changed against the dollar after a report showed gross domestic product rose 1 percent in the third quarter, matching an earlier estimate. The German parliament yesterday approved the latest rescue package for Greece after euro-region finance ministers Nov. 27 agreement to ease the terms of the nation's bailout. Gilts rose as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney was unexpectedly appointed as the next head of the Bank of England. Sterling's decline against the euro is a function of improving short-term European sentiment over Greece, said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. Carney is well respected. I would suggest the appointment is good for U.K assets in the longer term. The pound fell 0.3 percent from Nov. 23 to 81.18 pence per euro at 4:54 p.m. London time yesterday after depreciating to 81.33 pence, the weakest level since Oct. 24. The U.K. currency was little changed on the week at $1.6023, after touching $1.6063, the most since Nov. 2. Sterling has weakened 1.4 percent in the past six months, the third-worst performer after the yen and the dollar among the 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Indexes. The yen fell 9.6 percent, the dollar dropped 5.1 percent and the euro rose 0.4 percent.

	Support	Resistance
GBPUSD	1.59850	1.60586
	1.59496	1.60968
	1.58760	1.61704

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold capped its biggest weekly drop in more than five months on concern that U.S. lawmakers may fail to reach a settlement in talks aimed at avoiding self-imposed tax increases and budget cuts known as the fiscal cliff. Republican House Speaker John Boehner told reporters that budget talks were in a stalemate and the Obama administration's offer yesterday wasn't a serious proposal. The president said today he expects prolonged negotiations. Gold tumbled 2.2 percent this week, the most since June 22. Fiscal-cliff concern is keeping investors on the sidelines, Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Gold futures for February delivery slid 1 percent to settle at $1,712.70 an ounce at 1:43 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices retreated 0.4 percent this month, the second straight loss.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1704.90	1728.10
	1695.00	1741.40
	1671.80	1764.60

SILVER

(Bloomberg) Silver futures for March delivery fell 3.3 percent to $33.279 an ounce on the Comex. Prices dropped 2.7 percent this week, the most since Nov. 2. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for January delivery slipped 0.9 percent to $1,604.60 an ounce, extending the weekly loss to 0.8 percent. Palladium futures for March delivery gained 0.1 percent to $688.20 an ounce. Prices rose 3.1 percent this week, the fifth straight gain.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	32.92	34.12
	32.42	34.82
	31.22	36.02

+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Oil capped its first monthly increase since August on signals that economic expansion in the U.S. is accelerating. Futures rose 1 percent after the MNI Chicago Report's business barometer showed activity in the U.S. grew in November for the first time in three months. Investors also weighed developments in U.S. budget talks as Democrats and Republicans discussed how to avoid more than $600 billion a year in spending cuts and tax increases known as the fiscal cliff. The Chicago numbers were a little better than expected, said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. It's likely that we will end the year above $90 a barrel because of tightening inventories and the likelihood that there will be a budget agreement. Crude oil for January delivery advanced 84 cents to $88.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 19. Futures increased 0.7 percent this week and gained 3.1 percent this month. Prices are down 10 percent this year.

	Support	Resistance
+CLF13	87.98	89.39
	87.07	89.89
	85.66	91.30

@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose a second week, the longest advance since September, as investors watched developments in government budget negotiations amid better-than-anticipated economic reports. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and EBay Inc. gained more than 5 percent for the week as online spending surged 17 percent on the Monday after Thanksgiving. Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) added 6.1 percent as the largest U.S. warehouse-club chain announced a special dividend. Knight Capital Group Inc. soared 35 percent after receiving takeover bids from Getco LLC and Virtu Financial LLC. The S&P 500 (SPX) increased 0.5 percent to 1,416.18 for the week. The benchmark measure for American equities extended its rally since Nov. 16 to 4.1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 15.90 points, or 0.1 percent, to 13,025.58. The market has been incredibly reactive to what's coming out of Washington with regards to the fiscal cliff issue, said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab Corp. in Austin, Texas. His firm has $1.9 trillion in client assets. In general, the consensus is that they are going to get this resolved at least to some degree that the market will be satisfied with.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1409.50	1418.75
	1405.25	1423.50
	1395.75	1432.75

Today Analysis 29-11-2012

EURUSD

(Reuters) The euro fell for a third straight session against the dollar on Wednesday on worries about how a deal on Greek debt would be implemented and uncertainty over whether the United States would avoid the "fiscal cliff." The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2931. Traders cited bids at $1.2870 and $1.2850, which could limit losses in the near term, with some attributing the euro's weakness to talk of dollar demand for month-end portfolio adjustments. Offers were cited at $1.2940. The euro zone's common currency pared some losses after House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, voiced optimism that Republicans could broker a deal with the White House to avoid year-end austerity measures. But he repeated his opposition to raising income-tax rates. The U.S. economy trucked along at a "measured" pace in recent weeks and hiring remained modest, according to a Federal Reserve report that did little to calm concerns about slow growth and high unemployment. Earlier, data showed new U.S. single-family home sales fell slightly in October and the previous month's pace of sales was revised sharply lower, casting a faint shadow over one of the brighter spots in the U.S. economy.

	Support	Resistance
EURUSD	1.28993	1.29806
	1.28487	1.30113
	1.27674	1.30926

GBPUSD

(Bloomberg) Sterling was set for a second monthly decline against the dollar. The average cost of a home was 163,853 pounds ($262,300) in November, Swindon, England-based Nationwide said today. House values may drop modestly over the next year because of subdued wage growth, it added. U.K. gilts were little changed, with yields within three basis points of the lowest in more than a week. Spanish and Italian bonds advanced, fueling optimism the euro regions debt crisis is easing. Overall the picture for sterling is going to turn more negative, said Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. Sterling has been relatively well supported by safe-haven flows from Europe but as volatility and risk premium in European asset markets reduces, these flows are slowing down. That is going to expose sterling to its underlying fundamentals, which I don't think are positive. Sterling fell 0.2 percent to 81.04 pence per euro at 9:46 a.m. London time after depreciating to 81.14 pence on Nov. 27, the weakest level since Oct. 24. The pound was little changed at $1.6027.

	Support	Resistance
GBPUSD	1.59756	1.60348
	1.59387	1.60571
	1.58795	1.61163

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three weeks as investor holdings expanded to a record and optimism returned that the so-called fiscal cliff in the U.S. will be avoided, hurting the dollar. Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,723.16 an ounce by 9:17 a.m. in London. Bullion for February delivery gained 0.4 percent to $1,725 an ounce on the Comex in New York. We're not seeing signs of any significant follow-through selling, said Nick Trevethan, a senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) in Singapore. The factors supporting gold really haven't gone away. You still have large amounts of liquidity in the system, you're seeing central banks trying to support markets. Gold, little changed this month, has climbed 10 percent this year after central banks from the U.S. to Europe took more steps to boost growth, raising concern currencies may weaken. Gold rallied 70 percent as the Federal Reserve bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1,704.5	1,741.7
	1,686.5	1,760.9
	1,649.3	1,798.1

SILVER

Silver was little changed at $33.74 an ounce.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	33.10	34.23
	32.44	34.70
	31.31	35.83

+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Oil rose for the first time in four days in New York after U.S. stockpiles declined unexpectedly and political leaders in the world's biggest crude consumer expressed optimism about agreeing on a federal budget. Futures advanced as much as 1.2 percent after sliding 0.8 percent yesterday to a two-week low. Republican House Speaker John Boehner believes talks on tax increases and spending cuts known collectively as the fiscal cliff can avert this crisis sooner rather than later, he told reporters. President Barack Obama said he hopes to reach a deal before Christmas. U.S. crude supplies slid 347,000 barrels last week, an Energy Department report showed. They were forecast to climb 350,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. "The oil market is still reasonably tight," said Tobias Merath, head of commodity research at Credit Suisse AG in Zurich, who predicts crude will rise about $5 a barrel over the next three months. "There could be a year-end rally for crude as global supply growth seems to be peaking, and economic growth has surprised a bit to the upside." West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery climbed as much as $1.01 to $87.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $87.49 at 10:48 a.m. London time. The contract pared a decline of as much as $1.82 yesterday to close down 69 cents at $86.49, the lowest since Nov. 15. Prices have fallen 11 percent this year.

	Support	Resistance
+CLF13	85.56	87.45
	84.52	88.30
	82.63	90.19

@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) The S&P 500 climbed 0.8 percent to 1,409.93 in New York, after erasing a decline of as much as 1 percent.. J.C. Penney Co. rallied 4.6 percent as consumer staples and discretionary stocks posted gains among 10 groups in the S&P 500. Knight Capital Group Inc. (KCG) jumped 15 percent after receiving takeover offers from Getco LLC and Virtu Financial LLC. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) dropped 1.3 percent as commodities declined.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1,389.00	1,414.50
	1,373.25	1,424.25
	1,347.75	1,449.75

Daily Forex Analysis 27-11-2012

EURUSD

(Bloomberg) The euro touched a three-week high after the currency bloc's finance ministers reached agreement on Greece's debt burden and its funding gap. The 17-nation currency gained against the majority of its 16 main counterparts after euro-area finance chiefs and the International Monetary Fund agreed to cut Greece's interest rates and gave it more time to pay back rescue loans. The yen dropped versus the dollar after Japanese opposition party leader Shinzo Abe reiterated his call for a different scale of monetary easing. We saw the euro pop on the news that a deal has been reached, said Sue Trinh, a Hong Kong-based senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada.The actual announcement of the deal has been somewhat of a relief. The euro climbed to $1.3009, the strongest since Oct. 31, before trading at $1.2985 as of 2:21 p.m. in Tokyo, 0.1 percent higher than the close in New York yesterday. It gained 0.3 percent to 106.78 yen. The yen weakened 0.1 percent to 82.24 per dollar after earlier rising as much as 0.3 percent. Ministers from the 17-nation euro bloc started their meeting at 12:30 p.m. in Brussels yesterday, less than a week after an all-night gathering failed to yield agreement and days after a EU summit broke up without a proposed seven-year budget. The updated aid package lowers interest rates on the loans to Greece and sets new debt targets for the country of 124 percent of GDP in 2020 and below 110 percent in 2022.

	Support	Resistance
EURUSD	1.29525	1.30154
	1.29166	1.30424
	1.28537	1.31053

GBPUSD

(Bloomberg) The pound pared declines against the dollar and euro after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney was unexpectedly appointed as the next head of the Bank of England. Carney will take the helm of a British central bank that's preparing to become the most powerful in the world as it absorbs broad new powers to oversee the financial system and prevent another crisis. Ten-year gilts pared an advance that pushed yields to the lowest in almost a week. Sterling earlier slid to a the least in a month against the euro as European finance ministers meet for talks on an updated aid package for Greece. This is sterling supportive in the sense that he has credibility and that he understands that financials are at the core of the U.K. economy, which will help the currency, said Sebastien Galy, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York. The issue is that he will try to maintain a weak pound to help the economy rebalance but that is not much different from his predecessor. Sterling fell 0.1 percent to $1.6011 at 4:09 p.m. London time after sliding to $1.5997. It traded at 80.96 pence per euro after earlier dropping to 81.10, the weakest level since 0ct. 24.

	Support	Resistance
GBPUSD	1.60064	1.60451
	1.59816	1.60590
	1.59424	1.60977

GOLD

(Bloomberg) Gold climbed after euro-area finance ministers reached a pact on Greece's debt burden, boosting the euro, and investors raised holdings in exchange-traded products to a record. Silver gained to the highest in almost seven weeks. Spot gold advanced as much as 0.2 percent to $1,751.80 an ounce and traded at $1,749.80 at 12:12 p.m. in Singapore. The metal reached $1,754.65 on Nov. 23, the most expensive since Oct. 15. Holdings in ETPs expanded to 2,606.974 metric tons yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Cash silver rose as much as 0.4 percent to $34.285 an ounce, the highest level since Oct. 11. The finance ministers, in the region's fourth Greek crisis meeting in two weeks, agreed to cut the country's interest rates and gave it more time to pay back rescue loans, while dismissing calls for a reduction in the amount that's owed. The euro gained as much as 0.3 percent against the dollar. Gold, up 1.7 percent this month, tends to move inversely to the U.S. currency. As investors once again gain confidence in Europe after leaders give Greece another chance, that will help the euro and in turn gold, said Wang Xiaoxi, an analyst at Beijing Capital Futures Co., a unit of the Chinese capital's investment arm. The market may try for a test of $1,800 this week.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1738.00	1756.50
	1726.60	1763.60
	1708.10	1782.10

SILVER

(Reuters) Spot silver rose to $34.23 an ounce, its highest since mid-October, before easing to $34.21.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	33.91	34.31
	33.66	34.46
	33.26	34.86

+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Oil rose from the lowest level in almost a week after European finance ministers reached an agreement on aid for Greece, easing concern that Europe's debt crisis will derail the economic recovery and curb fuel demand. Futures advanced as much as 0.4 percent in New York after slipping 0.6 percent yesterday. Ministers agreed to help Greece manage its debt burden in talks in Brussels that lasted more than 12 hours, a European Union official said. It was the fourth round of discussions by ministers on the Greek crisis in two weeks. U.S. crude inventories probably rose 500,000 barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts before an Energy Department report tomorrow. Another life line for Greece is supportive for oil, as it shows we are slowly working our way through the euro crisis, said Jeremy Friesen, a commodity strategist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. Improvements in the euro crisis should be positive for the euro and thus could also add some weaker-dollar support to oil prices. Crude for January delivery gained as much as 36 cents to $88.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $88.09 at 1:32 p.m. Singapore time. The contract decreased 54 cents yesterday to $87.74, the lowest since Nov. 21. Prices are down 11 percent this year.

	Support	Resistance
+CLF13	87.31	88.31
	86.79	88.79
	85.79	89.79

@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.2 percent to 1,406.29 in New York, after the benchmark index jumped 3.6 percent last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 42.31 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,967.37 today. More than 5.3 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 13 percent below the three-month average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. We've got a lot of negatives, Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage about $14.6 billion of assets at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. There's the backdrop of what's going on in the European Union with the bailouts and recapitalizing the banks. On top of that, we have issues in the U.S. with regard to our fiscal policy. That's just enough reason at this point in time to take risk off the table and wait for more insight and clarity. Congress returns from the Thanksgiving recess this week, seeking a budget deal to avoid $607 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts from kicking in next year. While Republicans favor raising federal tax revenue by limiting deductions, Democrats have pushed for higher rates on upper- income earners.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1398.25	1407.75
	1391.50	1411.25
	1381.75	1420.75

Today Forex Analysis 26-11-2012

EURUSD

(Bloomberg) The euro fell, snapping a five-day gain, after pro-independence parties in Catalonia won a regional vote, strengthening a drive for a referendum on secession in defiance of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The 17-nation euro declined against most of its 16 major peers amid concern Spain may postpone asking for a bailout amid political uncertainty. Finance ministers from the bloc will reconvene in Brussels today to decide on aid for Greece. The yen rebounded from a seven-month low as a technical indicator signaled the currency may be oversold. Gains in the yen were limited after the minutes of last month's Bank of Japan (8301) policy meeting showed members called for monetary easing. Spain will continue to delay asking for financial assistance, said Masafumi Yamamoto, the Tokyo-based chief foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc. The election result is not positive for the euro. The market may shift its focus to Spain and the poor economic fundamentals in Europe once we confirm aid for Greece. The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2961 as of 1:59 p.m. in Tokyo from Nov. 23, when it capped a 1.8 percent five-day advance. The shared currency earlier touched 107.14 yen, the highest level since April 27, before trading at 106.69, 0.2 percent below the close in New York on Nov. 23. The Japanese currency added 0.1 percent to 82.33 per dollar from the end of last week. It reached 82.84 Nov. 22, the weakest since April 4.

	Support	Resistance
EURUSD	1.28948	1.30172
	1.28200	1.30648
	1.26976	1.31872

GBPUSD

(Bloomberg) The pound strengthened against the dollar, set for its first weekly advance in a month, after a British Bankers Association report showed mortgage approvals rose to a nine-month high in October. The U.K. currency fell to its weakest level in four weeks against the euro before European finance ministers meet on Nov. 26 to find a way to plug Greece's budget shortfall. Gilts were little changed, with 10-year yields set for their first weekly increase since Oct. 19. A report next week will show U.K. gross domestic product grew 1 percent in the third quarter, confirming an earlier reading, according to the median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A lot of the pound strength is it tracking the euro against the dollar, as if you look at pound-euro, sterling is going to finish lower on the week, said Lee McDarby, head of dealing on the corporate and institutional treasury desk at Investec Bank Plc in London. The main figure driving the pound recently has been GDP. Revisions are due on Tuesday so if we see an upwards revision then the pound may extend this week's advance. The pound advanced 0.6 percent to $1.6030 at 4:13 p.m. London time, after touching $1.6035, the most since Nov. 7. The U.K. currency is set for a 0.9 percent weekly gain. Sterling was little changed at 80.87 pence per euro after touching 81.09 pence, the weakest since Oct. 24.

	Support	Resistance
GBPUSD	1.59540	1.60783
	1.58776	1.61262
	1.57533	1.62505

GOLD

(Reuters) - Gold turned lower on Monday as speculators booked profits after the price rallied to its highest in more than a month in the previous session on technical buying, shrugging off the influence of a firmer euro. * Gold fell $1.85 an ounce to $1,750.54 by 0017 GMT after rising to $1,754.10 on Friday, its strongest since Oct. 12 due to a drop in the dollar and options-related buying. Bullion has gained around 11 percent this year, mainly due to expectations U.S. monetary policy will remain loose. * U.S. gold for December was flat at $1,750.90 an ounce. * All solutions to help Greece remain financially afloat will have to be applied, including buying back some of its debt, France said ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday.

	Support	Resistance
GOLD	1735.10	1761.60
	1718.30	1771.30
	1691.50	1797.20

SILVER

(Bloomberg) Silver futures for March delivery gained 2.3 percent to $34.206 an ounce. Earlier, the price reached $34.25, the highest since Oct. 11. Platinum futures for January delivery advanced 2.1 percent to $1,617.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while palladium futures for December delivery increased 2.5 percent to $667.60 an ounce.

	Support	Resistance
SILVER	33.52	34.43
	32.92	34.74
	32.31	35.65

+CLF13

(Bloomberg) Oil fell for the first time in three days as tension eased in the Middle East, reducing concern that unrest in the region will spread and disrupt crude supplies. Futures slid as much as 0.5 percent in New York after capping the biggest weekly gain since October on Nov. 23. Israel relaxed restrictions on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip after last week's cease-fire with Hamas survived claims of breaches by both sides. Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi will meet the nation's judicial council today, the state-run Middle East News Agency reported, citing presidential spokesman Yasser Ali. Opposition has mounted since Mursi issued a Nov. 22 decree that prevents his actions from being challenged by the courts. The meeting may signal that the Egyptian president is trying to cool off the violence that has emerged, said Victor Shum, the managing director of IHS Consulting in Singapore. Oil has come down a bit but only slightly. I look at this slight edging down as profit taking. West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery dropped as much as 47 cents to $87.81 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $88.12 at 2:18 p.m. Singapore time. Futures advanced 90 cents to $88.28 a barrel on Nov. 23, the highest settlement since Nov. 19. Prices rose 1.9 percent last week and are down 11 percent this year.

	Support	Resistance
+CLF13	87.17	88.94
	86.07	89.61
	84.30	91.38

@ESZ12

(Bloomberg) The S&P 500 advanced 3.6 percent to 1,409.15 for the week, extending its 2012 gain to 12 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 421.37 points, or 3.4 percent, to 13,009.68. Both gauges had the best week since June 8. What you're seeing out of Washington before the break is a very cooperative tone, Bill Greiner, who oversees $14 billion as chief investment officer at Mariner Wealth Advisors in Kansas City, Missouri, said in a phone interview. There is a gathering sense that the deceleration in economic growth in China seems to be bottoming right now. Both of those areas are adding to a little bit strength in the market. The S&P 500 began the week with the biggest advance in two months after Obama met with senior Democrats and Republicans on Nov. 16 for talks to avoid a so-called fiscal cliff of $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts next year. The index continued to climb after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas agreed to call a halt to more than a week of air strikes and missile attacks. Data showed the first expansion in China's manufacturing industry in 13 months and an unexpected gain in German business confidence.

	Support	Resistance
@ESZ12	1392.25	1412.25
	1379.50	1419.75
	1359.25	1440.25