Murrey Math Lines 13.12.2016 (EUR/USD, NZD/USD)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair couldn’t stay below the -1/8 level and right now is trading between Super Trends, which formed “bearish cross”. On Tuesday, the ascending correction may continue. However, if later the price fixes below the -1/8 level, the market will start a new decline.

At the H1 chart, the closest target for bulls is at the 3/8 level. If the pair rebounds from this level, bears will try to start a new descending movement. To confirm this scenario, the price has to six below Super Trends.

NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading above the H4 Super Trend close to the 6/8 level. It’s highly likely that in the nearest future the market may test the 7/8 level. If the price rebounds from this level, the pair may start a new decline.

At the H1 chart, the pair is moving in the middle. Super Trends formed “bullish cross”. In the nearest future, the price may test the 6/8 level. If this level provides resistance, the market may reverse and start falling.

ICM Capital Daily Market Update - Tuesday 13 December 2016

EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Pivot: 1.0595 Our preference: long positions above 1.0595 with targets at 1.0680 & 1.0705 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.0595 look for further downside with 1.0550 & 1.0525 as targets. Comment: technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 115.60 Our preference: short positions below 115.60 with targets at 114.60 & 114.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 115.60 look for further upside with 116.15 & 116.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

GBP/USD Intraday: aim @ 1.2700.

Pivot: 1.2640 Our preference: long positions above 1.2640 with targets at 1.2700 & 1.2740 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.2640 look for further downside with 1.2620 & 1.2595 as targets. Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Gold spot Intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 1160.00 Our preference: long positions above 1160.00 with targets at 1169.00 & 1172.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1160.00 look for further downside with 1154.50 & 1151.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Silver spot Intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 16.9500 Our preference: long positions above 16.9500 with targets at 17.2400 & 17.3500 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 16.9500 look for further downside with 16.8200 & 16.7300 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias. Prices broke above a broadening wedge pattern (bullish)

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Crude Oil (WTI) (F7) Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 53.45 Our preference: short positions below 53.45 with targets at 51.90 & 51.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 53.45 look for further upside with 54.50 & 55.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further decline.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dax (Eurex) (Z6) Intraday: bullish bias above 11000.00.

Pivot: 11000.00 Our preference: long positions above 11000.00 with targets at 11255.00 & 11400.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 11000.00 look for further downside with 10900.00 & 10785.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Dow Jones (CME) (H7) Intraday: bullish bias above 19635.00.

Pivot: 19635.00 Our preference: long positions above 19635.00 with targets at 19809.00 & 19860.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 19635.00 look for further downside with 19530.00 & 19425.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. The 50-period exponential moving average is playing a support role.

Green Lines Represent Resistances | Red Lines Represent Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point |  Black represents the price when the report was produced

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 09.12.2016 (GBP/USD, GOLD)

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
 
GBP USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected and formed “Dead Cross” (1), but the lines are still influenced by D “Golden Cross” (3). Ichimoku Cloud is heading up, the daily cloud is rising as well, and Chinkou Lagging Span is on the chart. Short-term forecast: we can expect resistance from Tenkan-Sen – Senkou Span A, and attempts of the price to fix below the cloud.

GBP USD, Time Frame H1. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen intersected under Kumo Cloud and formed “Dead Cross” (1). Ichimoku Cloud is very narrow and still going down (2); Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart. Short-term forecast: we can expect support from Tenkan-Sen, resistance from Kijun-Sen, and decline of the price.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
 
XAU USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen ran into one another below Kumo Cloud (1), but both lines are still influenced by D “Dead Cross” (3). Ichimoku Cloud is moving downwards, the daily cloud is falling as well. Chinkou Lagging Span is close to the chart, and the price is on Tenkan-Sen. Short‑term forecast: we can expect resistance from W Senkou Span B, and decline of the price.
 

Forex Technical Analysis 07.12.2016 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair is forming another descending structure towards 1.0600. Later, in our opinion, the market may start growing to return 1.0720.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair is moving downwards with the target at 1.2555. After that, the instrument may start growing to reach 1.2968.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is forming another ascending wave to reach 1.0172. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall towards 1.011.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair is moving upwards with the target at 114.76. After that, the instrument may fall towards 112.50.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is falling towards the downside border of its consolidation range. We think, today the price may reach 0.7370. Later, in our opinion, the market may grow towards 0.7550.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is consolidating. Possibly, today the market may fall to break 63.40 and then reach 62.00. After that, the instrument may return to 63.40.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Being under pressure, Gold is falling. Possibly, today the market may reach 1155 and then start growing towards 1222.

BRENT

Being under pressure, Brent is still moving downwards. Possibly, today the market may to reach 53. After that, the instrument may continue growing with the local target at 56.

Murrey Math Lines 07.12.2016 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair is again moving below the 0/8 level, but didn’t fix under Super Trends so far. As soon as it happens, the price may resume falling towards the -1/8 level. After reaching it, the market may start a local ascending correction.

At the H1 chart, the pair left the “overbought zone” and fixed below the 8/8 level. In the nearest future, the market may fall towards the 5/8 level. If later the price breaks this level, it may continue moving downwards.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair couldn’t fix above the 8/8 level inside the “overbought zone” and right now is moving below this level and the H4 Super Trend. As a result, during the next several days the market may fall towards the 6/8 level.

 At the H1 chart, Super Trends formed “bearish cross”. The closest target is at the 6/8 level. If later this level is broken, the market may continue falling towards the 4/8 one.

Wave Analysis 07.12.2016 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Probably, the EUR/USD pair completed the ascending impulse [c] in the flat 2. As a result, in the nearest future the market may resume falling and form the bearish impulse in the wave [i].

As we can see at the M30 chart, the wave (v) of [c] was truncated. On a shorter timeframe, the pair completed the bearish wave (i). Consequently, after finishing the local correction, the market may start falling in the wave (iii) of [i].

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

It looks like yesterday the GBP/USD pair completed the wave (y) in the double three [iv]. To confirm a new decline, the price has to form the bearish impulse in the wave (i).

As we can see at the H1 chart, the pair finished the diagonal triangle c of (y). On a shorter timeframe, the price is about to complete the wave i. It’s highly likely that on Wednesday the market may start a new local ascending correction.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Possibly, the USD/JPY pair finished the long bullish impulse in the wave c of (y). In the nearest future, the market may start forming the descending impulse in the wave i or a.

As we can see at the H1 chart, after completing the diagonal triangle in the wave [5] of c, the pair finished the descending impulse in the wave (1). On Wednesday, the market may finish the wave (2) and then resume falling in the wave (3).

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Probably, the price completed the wave (ii). Earlier, the pair finished the descending impulse in the wave (i). It’s highly likely that in the nearest future the market may start a new decline in the wave (iii).

More detailed structure is shown on the H1chart. The pair finished the wave (ii) in the form of the zigzag with the triangle b inside it. To confirm a new decline, the market has to form the descending impulse in the wave i.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 07.12.2016 (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from the group of downside fibo-levels twice, the EUR/USD pair started a new ascending correction. The closest target is the retracement of 38.2% at 1.0820. It’s highly likely that after completing the local correction, the market may resume its growth.

At the H1 chart, the target of the local correction is the retracement of 50%. If the pair rebounds from this level upwards, the market may resume its growth and reach a new local high.

EUR GBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

In case of the EUR/GBP pair, the current correction is getting higher. Possibly, during the next several days bulls may try to reach the retracement of 50% at 0.8610, which is confirmed by intraday fibo-levels.

As we can see at the H1 chart, yesterday the pair rebounded the correctional retracement of 38.2% and resumed its growth. On Wednesday, the price may break the local high and then continue growing towards the group of upside retracements.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 06.12.2016 (EUR/USD, USD/JPY)

EUR USD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

At the H4 chart of EUR USD, bullish Hammer and Three White Soldiers patterns indicate an ascending movement. A new Window is a support level. Shooting Star pattern confirms a bearish pullback. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks show a bullish direction.



At the H1 chart of EUR USD, bearish Harami and High Wave patterns indicated a descending correction. Three Line Break chart shows a bullish direction; Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm that the correction continues.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

At the H4 chart of USD JPY, bearish Evening Star and Tweezers patterns indicated a descending correction. Hammer pattern, Three Line Break chart, and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm a bullish direction.

The Australian Dollar is retreating. Overview for 06.12.2016

 

The AUD/USD pair is trading downwards after another meeting of the RBA.

The Australian Dollar is being sold against the USD on Tuesday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7444.

So, the December meeting of the RBA finished this morning. Just as expected, the rate remained unchanged at 1.5%. Right now, it’s too early to revise the indicator because the previous decrease hasn’t produced any observable effects so far. In its comments, the Australian regulator mentioned that it didn’t exclude a possibility of a particular slowdown in economic growth at the end of the year – but it’s just a pause before a new shoot forward. The real estate sector stabilized, or even improved in some aspects; in some cases, there might be seen a rise in housing prices, which is also positive. The labor market is still providing some mixed signals, but in the short-term, the employment is improving and this tendency may transform into a long-term one later.  

When it comes to the inflation in Australia, the RBA estimates it as very low at the moment and doesn’t expect it to increase. The current high exchange rate of the Aussie can make the transition period in the country’s economy more difficult.

Now, after the regulator’s new management mentioned the AUD and its influence on the country’s economy in its comments, we can say that the rhetoric of Mr. Stevens, ex-Governor of the RBA, is back. It appears that Mr. Lowe, the current Governor of the Australian Central Bank, reached the same point of the monetary policy stability as Stevens did in his time.

The neutral tone of the RBA’s comments put some more pressure on the Aussie. In the morning, large banks published their prediction relating to the country’s GDP, which indicated their expectations of a slowdown in economic growth.
 

Asian stocks climb on strong Dow close, US service report

HONG KONG (AP) — Asian stocks rose Tuesday following another record day on Wall Street as investor optimism bounced back quickly after the Italian referendum.
KEEPING SCORE: Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.5 percent to 18,360.54 and South Korea's Kospi jumped 1.4 percent to 1,990.53. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.8 percent to 22,676.55 while the Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1 percent higher to 3,207.19. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.5 percent to 5,428.70. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia also advanced.
QUOTABLE QUOTE: "The markets appear to have come to the realization that the concerns paid to the Italian referendum may be too much or too early," said Jingyi Pan of IG Markets in Singapore. "Relief rally has become the favorite description for the overnight trend seen in both European and U.S. stock markets as traders tuned back to riskier assets."
SOUTH KOREAN RECKONING: Top business leaders were grilled by lawmakers over allegations that President Park Geun-hye allowed a corrupt confidante to pull government strings and extort companies. With Park facing possible impeachment, the Finance Ministry said it would "frontload" nearly 70 percent of government spending for 2017 to help boost the slowing economy. Shares jumped in response.
SERVICE SURVEY: Activity at U.S. services companies grew at its fastest pace last month in more than a year, according to a monthly survey of purchasing managers. The report, which found that production, hiring and new export orders all grew faster in November than the month before, is an encouraging sign for the broader U.S. economy, the world's largest.
WALL STREET: Major U.S. benchmarks pushed higher and the Dow Jones industrial average set another record high, rising 0.2 percent to 19,216.24. The Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed 0.6 percent to 2,204.71. The Nasdaq composite added 1 percent to 5,308.89. The U.S. rally erased any remaining pessimism following Italy's weekend referendum in which voters defeated proposed constitutional changes, triggering Premier Matteo Renzi's resignation. Investors are now looking ahead to the year's final market-moving event, next week's Fed meeting at which policymakers are expected to raise interest rates from ultralow levels.
ENERGY: The rally in oil prices petered out after four days of gains fueled by the OPEC deal to trim production. Benchmark U.S. crude futures lost 38 cents to $51.41 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 11 cents to $51.79 per barrel on Thursday. Brent crude, used to price international oils, shed 29 cents to $54.65 a barrel in London.
CURRENCIES: The dollar rose to 114.06 yen from 113.70 yen in Thursday's trading. The euro rose to $1.0751 from $1.0756.

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